Operations & Supply Chain

Statistical Forecasting for Supply Chain Planners

Forecast accuracy drives inventory, service levels and production efficiency. This course teaches supply chain planners practical statistical forecasting: analysing demand history, moving averages and exponential smoothing, trend and seasonality, intermittent demand, measuring forecast error and combining statistics with market intelligence.

5 days Classroom or live online English

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Take the course details with you.

Download the full standard outline: why attend, methodology, objectives, audience, competencies, the daily outline and current plans.

Download course PDF

Why attend

From knowledge to real-world impact.

Better forecasts reduce both stock-outs and excess inventory. You will learn methods you can apply immediately in spreadsheets or planning systems.

Workplace challenges

Professional Problems This Course Is Designed to Solve

The programme explores practical approaches to the following challenges. Results depend on how the learning is applied in your organisation.

Difficulty translating subject knowledge into practical workplace decisions.
Inconsistent approaches to the activities covered in the course outline.
Lack of a structured plan for applying and reviewing new skills.

Course methodology

How you will learn.

Spreadsheet forecasting exercises with real demand patterns, error analysis, case studies and planning workshops.

Course objectives

What you'll take away.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

Analyse demand patterns and data quality
Apply moving average and exponential smoothing methods
Model trend and seasonality
Forecast intermittent and lumpy demand
Measure and monitor forecast accuracy and bias
Combine statistical forecasts with judgement

Target audience

Who should attend.

This course is suitable for:

Demand and supply planners
Inventory planners
Supply chain analysts
Sales and operations planning staff
Production planners

Target competencies

Capabilities you will build.

Participants will develop competencies in:

Statistical forecasting
Data analysis
Error measurement
Seasonality modelling
Consensus forecasting

Course outline

Your learning journey.

A focused, practical outline with time to explore, apply and reflect.

Day 1Forecasting Foundations

09:00–10:08Role of forecasting
10:08–11:00Demand patterns
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Demand patterns (continued)
11:45–12:53Data cleansing
12:53–14:00Exercise

Day 2Basic Methods

09:00–10:08Naive and moving averages
10:08–11:00Exponential smoothing
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Exponential smoothing (continued)
11:45–12:53Choosing parameters
12:53–14:00Spreadsheet practice

Day 3Trend and Seasonality

09:00–10:08Holt and Holt-Winters
10:08–11:00Seasonal indices
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Seasonal indices (continued)
11:45–12:53Promotions and events
12:53–14:00Exercise

Day 4Accuracy

09:00–10:08MAPE, MAD and bias
10:08–11:00Tracking signals
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Tracking signals (continued)
11:45–12:53Forecast value added
12:53–14:00Workshop

Day 5Judgement and Process

09:00–10:08Market intelligence
10:08–11:00Consensus forecasting
11:00–11:30Coffee break
11:30–11:45Consensus forecasting (continued)
11:45–12:53Planning process
12:53–14:00Action plan

The timings provided are estimates and may vary depending on the number of participants and the discussions taking place during the sessions. They are indicative only and do not constitute a binding commitment.

Dates & venues

Find a session that works for you.

Confirmed dates accept registration requests. Tentative dates are enquiry only.

Good to know

A few things to know.

How is the course delivered?

Our classroom programmes combine facilitated discussion, case studies, exercises and reflection. The precise format will be confirmed before enrolment.

Can you deliver this programme for our team?

Yes, you can enquire about a tailored programme. Share your goals, group size and preferred dates with our learning team.

Will I receive a certificate?

Participants who complete the programme receive a Smart Horizon UK certificate of attendance. Smart Horizon UK programmes are not externally accredited and do not award a professional qualification, licence or designation. Where a course title or outline refers to a professional certification (for example, AACE International's Certified Cost Professional), the programme supports learning and preparation only; the credential itself is awarded solely by the relevant professional body under its own application and examination requirements.

What should I confirm before booking travel?

Please confirm the session, exact venue, accessibility arrangements, fees and any visa requirements with the team before arranging travel. Tentative dates are not confirmed sessions.

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